BONUS QUICK PICK
17:10 LAGER TIME
KEMPTON QUICK PICKS
17:20 TAXIFORMISSBYRON (NB)
17:50 XANTHOS
19:20 MONTAIGNE (NAP)
20:20 SWEEPING ROCK
17:10 Brighton
I believe LAGER TIME has a great deal of ability. I am not 100% convinced he will be suited entirely by the soft ground he is likely to face at Brighton today but I have been waiting for him to be pitched in at Class 5 level. He has been contesting stronger races than this in Class 4 company and although has been showing nothing he has as a result dropped back to his last winning mark of 66. It is interesting to note this horse has 2 other entries Bath on the 20th (class 5) and Lingfield on the 22nd (class 6 claimer). Knowing how trainer Pat Evans operates it would not surprise me in the slightest to see a different horse here today and could easily rack up a quick fire sequence. May be way off the mark but at 20/1 can afford to take a chance!
17:20 Kempton
Interesting claimer. Operation Chariot drops a long way in grade having previously contested Group 3, listed and Class 2 handicaps. This horse has been marked up favorite on ATR tissue prices and I cannot have that at all. He ran in Class 4 Handicap last time out and did not show anything and despite this being a further drop in grade it worries me connections are turning to this race. Even if he can be given a chance it wont be a cake walk as he is up against Gabrial the Boss who is a decent handicapper on his day. His record in Claimers and Sellers is 112. I want to take a chance on a horse called TAXIFORMISSBYRON with a tissue price of 8/1. I make this much much shorter and I suggest we get stuck in each way if this price can be achieved with all 9 runners turning up. This filly was very progressive on the AW earlier this year racking up a hat-trick of wins 2 of which came over CD in handicaps in some decent speed figures for the grade. Comes here off the back of a some decent efforts on the turf and a return to AW specifically Kempton dropping in grade can all count towards my expectation of a big run with Joe Fanning booked.
17:50 Kempton
Plenty of unexposed horses in this race but the overnight favorite Hiking looks short enough to me. He's been allotted an opening mark of 80 which from what he's shown in his two starts to date looks only fair. I could well be proved very wrong but I do not think he is well in. He beat a horse called Snow Squal last time who has been struggling off a mark of 85. Intermath was a close 3rd that day and he too has been looking for help from the handicapper with a mark in the low 80s. Hiking did win well and could well be different gravy but I am happy to take a chance on one at a much bigger price. XANTHOS from the Ed Walker camp is a 12/1 shout on the early overnight prices and with 8 runners (if they all turn up) looks a rattling good each way bet. He has been struggling to settle in the small field races he has contested since taking his chance in the DBS Sales race at York. He is clearly well regarded by the Walker team (a trainer I have a good deal of respect for) who incidentally has been knocking hard at the door with many of his runners of late. Out of the last 12 races his form figures read : 2202810222722. Jockey/Trainer win and place strike rate is roughly 33% and if Xanthos takes to AW Kempton surface and settles I think everything points to a big run.
18:20 Kempton
Interesting maiden of which I have no strong opinions.
18:50 Kempton
Interesting maiden of which I have no strong opinions.
19:20 Kempton
MONTAIGNE looks overpriced at 5/1 on the early overnight prices. To me the front two in the betting Musicora 11/4 and Dutch Interior although are both coming off the back of wins are being priced up on their Jockey and Stable reputations. I have watched back the tape of Dutch Interior CD win last time and it looked hard work for him. Musicora was a much more visually impressive win but he takes a step up in class here and will find this much tougher. In contrast Montaigne ran a really nice race in 4th last time and takes a step back in class. In that race 4 went on to run creditably in a listed event (all outrunning their big price tags). Hopefilly who was back in 7th that day has won next time out and I think that form is pretty strong. Montaigne has confirmed his liking for the surface on his debut win, that race as well as his 2nd start are working out well both producing next time out winners, hes well drawn today with Jim Crowley booked looking for a big run here today.
19:50 Kempton
A very interesting and competitive race plenty come here in good form with lots of improvement to factor in. I have been looking at this race for some time and I am basically finding it impossible to come up with a strong selection. I will be watching this race with great interest for future clues but for me a race to watch and enjoy.
20:20 Kempton
Double Accord is an interesting contender off a break for the Honeyball yard. Better known for their National Hunt Flat race exploits its interesting this horse comes to Kempton over the 2m trip. Any money coming late for this horse would look significant coming here after 3 maiden runs over inadequate trips and a 143 day break. Luckster from the Evans yard is unexposed over these staying trips and its interesting to note he has another entry at Bath over further still in a few days time and could be potentially well handicapped. I will stick with proven Distance and Kempton form with SWEEPING ROCK. He himself is unexposed over this distance and showed a big improvement when finishing CD 4th last time staying on strongly late in the day. William Buick is booked for Tregoning yard and early price of 7/1 looks fair enough.